{
  "id": "2024-rakhine-connectivity-crisis",
  "title": "Rakhine State connectivity crisis, November 2024–2025",
  "class": "regional",
  "type": "full_blackout",
  "status": "ongoing",
  "date_start": "2024-11-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "scope": {
    "regions": [
      "Rakhine"
    ],
    "townships": [
      "Kyaukpyu",
      "Ramree"
    ],
    "asns": [],
    "operators": []
  },
  "confidence": "corroborated",
  "detection_sequence": [
    {
      "layer": "stop",
      "at": "2024-11-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "summary": "Access Now STOP record: internet and phone lines cut across almost all of Rakhine State from evening of Nov 16 until at least Dec 4, after a heavy weapon reportedly hit an MPT tower in the An-Padan area amid AA–military council fighting. STOP's own record: 'it is unclear who directly caused the shutdown.'",
      "signal_ids": []
    },
    {
      "layer": "stop",
      "at": "2025-01-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "summary": "Access Now STOP record: Arakan Army (not the junta) reported imposing shutdowns in areas under its control across Rakhine State, citing security concerns around junta airstrikes.",
      "signal_ids": []
    },
    {
      "layer": "ooni_anomaly",
      "at": "2024-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "summary": "OONI country-level monthly anomaly rate elevated through this period: Oct 2024 25.9%, Nov 2024 26.8% (vs ~9-16% in the 2021-2022 baseline) — national-level context, not Rakhine-specific evidence.",
      "signal_ids": []
    },
    {
      "layer": "media",
      "at": "2026-01-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "summary": "Mekong Eye (Jan 26, 2026): telecom outages in Rakhine State 'persisted for nearly 100 days' as of the report, affecting all 14 AA-occupied townships plus AA-occupied Paletwa (Chin State) and junta-controlled townships; farmers unable to access weather warnings ahead of Jul 2025 flooding. Irrawaddy separately reports the junta continuing to publicly justify the blackout as required to protect 'military secrets.' Stale-ongoing check (M2 patch): confirms persistence well past the 60-day window with dated sources.",
      "signal_ids": []
    }
  ],
  "verified_by": [
    "access_now",
    "media"
  ],
  "narrative": "DRAFT — needs an editor rewrite. Checked IODA's historical region-level signal for Rakhine (region code 2754) directly for both bgp and ping-slash24 datasources around Nov 16, 2024: both are flat/unchanged (BGP visibility constant at its baseline value throughout) — no routing-layer disruption was detectable, consistent with STOP's own account that the cause may have been physical damage to a tower rather than a deliberate route withdrawal. This null result is reported explicitly rather than omitted silently, per spec principle. STOP records name TWO different attributions across this cluster — the Nov 2024 record says cause is unclear (infrastructure damage, fuel shortage, and deliberate junta action all reported); the Jan 2025 record says the Arakan Army itself was imposing shutdowns in AA-held areas. Attribution question resolved (maintainer research, 2026-07): treated as ONE continuous, evolving disruption rather than two distinct causes or a split into separate events — attribution became clearer over time as AA consolidated territorial control, rather than the underlying disruption itself changing. Engage Media's Nov 2024–Jan 2025 quarterly frames this same period as a single ongoing connectivity crisis; conflict-tracking sources (ACAPS, CSIS) describe continuous AA territorial consolidation across the same townships through this window with no discrete break between the two attributions. Both detection_sequence entries are kept as-is (this is a presentation choice, not new evidence), now with the relationship between them stated explicitly rather than left as an open question. Later STOP records in this cluster (Jun, Aug ×2, Sep 2025 — all bare \"Rakhine State\" or Kyaukpyu/Ramree township) are summarized in scope/townships but not individually itemized in detection_sequence; full detail is in the exported CSV/JSON.\n",
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Access Now STOP Dataset — 6 Rakhine State records, Nov 2024–Sep 2025",
      "url": "https://www.accessnow.org/keepiton/"
    },
    {
      "label": "Mekong Eye: Myanmar's internet blackouts leave farmers without weather warnings",
      "url": "https://www.mekongeye.com/2026/01/26/myanmar-internet-weather"
    },
    {
      "label": "Irrawaddy: Myanmar Military says Rakhine internet blackout still required",
      "url": "https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-military-rakhine-internet-blackout-still-required-protect-military-secrets.html"
    },
    {
      "label": "Engage Media: Myanmar Digital Coup Quarterly, November 2024–January 2025",
      "url": "https://engagemedia.org/2025/myanmar-digital-coup-quarterly-november-2024-january-2025/"
    },
    {
      "label": "ACAPS: Myanmar — access constraints in Rakhine state (18 Nov 2024)",
      "url": "https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20241118_ACAPS_Myanmar-_Access_constraints_in_Rakhine_state_.pdf"
    },
    {
      "label": "CSIS: Arakan Army Poised to 'Liberate' Myanmar's Rakhine State",
      "url": "https://www.csis.org/analysis/arakan-army-posed-liberate-myanmars-rakhine-state"
    }
  ],
  "data_links": {
    "csv": "/data/events/2024-rakhine-connectivity-crisis.csv",
    "json": "/data/events/2024-rakhine-connectivity-crisis.json"
  },
  "technical_corroboration": {
    "layer": "ioda",
    "last_checked": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
    "result": "inconclusive"
  }
}